The sharp decline in international copper prices as China needs to focus - Sep, 7, 2008

The growing inventory, Europe and the United States needs the continued deterioration of the situation, the stronger dollar, surrounding the sharp drop in commodity markets, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices suffered tremendous pressure in the past for more than a week's time, prices from 7,850 U.S. dollars / ton Fell to 7,300 U.S. dollars / ton, or more than 7 percent in the past two months, copper prices are down 1,500 U.S. dollars / ton, or more than 17 percent.

the past three years, China's demand for copper prices often fall into the "Terminator" and after a recent crash, the copper market's attention once again look to China's demand for convergence - has experienced in recent 5 on the import deficit (import prices relative to domestic prices), in September of China's imports of copper traders began profits, the market for some time to see the future of China's copper imports increased hope.

Macquarie Bank's recent comments that the second half of 2008 is expected to Chinese copper demand growth will resume, particularly the fourth quarter there will be a large number of imports, as the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper and copper in LME The ratio has been imported to China in the activities.

this year in April to late June, China's domestic spot price of copper and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper prices fell shocks showed the trend, and the international prices of copper supply disruptions in the support of high Hengpan maintain the momentum, Differences in the two markets of the trend of China's copper imports resulted in a loss of status, China's copper imports remained at a relatively low level.

Shida futures According to statistics, since April this year, China's imports of copper a loss. In mid-April and late June, imports of copper loss for the once reached 8,000 yuan / ton.

into July, the international copper prices continued growth in inventories, stronger dollar, the European economic situation and the continued deterioration of oil prices have eased substantially, and so under the influence of multiple factors, launched a sharp fall trend, relative to international The decline in copper prices, domestic prices fell a relatively modest, which makes China's copper imports to reduce the degree of loss, but until the end of August, imports of copper is still not profitable. into September, China's copper imports began profits. September 1, according to SGT 15:00 domestic and international prices, the prices of imports relative to domestic spot prices low 598 yuan / ton; September 2, profit expanded to 915 yuan / ton; extended to yesterday's profit 1029 yuan / ton.

However, China needs to be formed support international prices, domestic analysts are skeptical about. Shenzhen on a metal trading company said: "Comparing with 2007, this year China's copper demand growth slowed down significantly, the credit crunch, the decline in profits, the domestic copper consumption enterprises interested in purchasing the obvious inhibited. Originally two Quarter of the domestic copper demand is the peak season, but the second quarter of this year on China's copper market showed no signs of the season, the next few months, China's copper imports may have increased, but that the impact of the international prices of more Investors in the psychological level of support rather than substantive. "

From the domestic spot and futures prices of copper price differences, we can see that the current domestic copper spot market and did not appear tense situation. Yesterday, the Shanghai non-ferrous metal net pricing, Shanghai spot copper prices relative to the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper September contract discount 50 yuan / ton.

China has always been a factor in the international copper market speculation of an important factor, the coming period if the Chinese copper imports quickly zoom in, then bound to a certain copper prices on international support, but in the current global demand Of the decline, China needs to increase the impact of copper prices will be discounted.

yesterday, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper main November contract rose 460 yuan / ton, at 57,710 yuan / ton, as of yesterday - 21:00, LME copper price was 7,362 U.S. dollars / ton, representing a transaction Rose 82 U.S. dollars / ton.

2008-9-4 From: First Financial Daily